LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Jun 24 2012 12:34 AM
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge

A few notes here.... the funktop shows explosive development to the East of Debby

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ft.html

Several models seem to be coming closer and closer towards La being in play, whereas earlier models showed a straight beeline for Texas... watch changes and trends in models carefully.

WV shows a still hostile set up for development or deepening development at Debby as to where X marks the spot. That is why the Eastern side is doing better as conditions are riper there for intensification, however that is not where the semi naked center of Debby is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Debby is almost impossible to find on the WV loop, yet that wild ULL is where Debby is forecast to be down the road...

Obviously a very complex set of problems...not to mention possible fronts and other factors.

Lastly, hope we are not getting into a Irene situation where we keep tracking a naked center and the strong weather is doing major damage elsewhere. Until this system wraps the "weather" to the East into it's center of circulation we need to look at the WHOLE storm system as a weather maker...including areas and beaches far from the point of possible landfall that will get huge amounts of weather and possible flooding storm surge.



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