LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Jun 24 2012 06:29 AM
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge

I see the forecast discussion written. I also see the Water Vapor Loop.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif

The stalemate is over with regard to steering currents i think and the path to the north is no longer blocked... or rather a path towards the Panhandle/NW Florida area...

Canadian also supports this and in the end the GFS may have been right.

That water vapor loop changed drastically over the last few hours. Possibly the moisture itself from the east side of the storm helped to break it down. Not sure, but it's not just about a strong cold front diving down.

It's about the path that is easiest to take... that is what weak storms do..they go with the flow or they go with the easy road... and they try and stay away from sand traps or other negative factors.

Will see how she looks on morning visible.

Anyone's guess is as good as anyone else's right now.



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