As of this posting, it still remains unsure exactly where T.S. Debby will track. However, given the persistant relocation of this very tilted and sheared storm and coupled with latest 0Z model guidance shift, it does appear that there is greater likelyhood of a N.Central Florida landfall.

Once initialized as a storm today, one may note a nearly immediate westward forecasted motion with the "cone of error" at 5 days expanding to cover the W. Coastline of Louisiana and all Coastal Texas. To my recollection, this may mark the first time that I can remember that NHC may miss all "cone forecast points. An illustration "link" of original track forecast may be clicked on above this post.

Though when initially pondered as a big league "swing and a miss", perhaps the more salient point here is that what makes this missed forecast stand out so much may very well be the level of increasing accuracy that NHC has exhibited over recent years and how we have all come to expect that. So if that be the case, they deserve a mulligan. (Heck, when I'm out playing golf i'm usually needing more than one!)