LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Jun 24 2012 08:20 AM
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge

Yeah watched the shift in the models blurry eyed last night or rather than early this morning.

Figures the Euro would shift. Question is does it shift on the next run as well?
As I said, the WV loop showed this becoming an easy path for Debby.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif

She is still in ORGANIZATIONAL mode, still organizing, we need to remember that.

I do think it's putting the horse before the cart worrying where she will go in 5 days while the West Coast of Florida and the beaches to the North are getting slammed. If twisters form again today, a possibility...she could take a tremendous financial toll on Florida while making landfall further to the North.. around Mobile Bay or even La... though the Florida Panhandle is looking more and more like ground zero.

Discounting the GFS is sort of like pretending it's not raining in Florida. Even if you don't go with it, you still need to keep watching it in the rear view mirror... consistency in a forecast model is worth noting.

It's not just whistling Dixie, it's reading something that the others are not reading or giving emphasis to ..



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