This appears to be the situation. The models did a poor job handling the intensity and location of the ULL in the northwest GOM, which I think ultimately forced Debby more to the northeast, ahead of, and possibly helping delay or prevent, the eastward building of the ridge that the ECMWF and other models relied on to make their forecasts.

At this point, Debby is so far north that it probably now has a slightly better than 50% chance of being picked up by the digging trough, and as been discussed elsewhere, NHC may go ahead and flip the cone in the next few hours to account for this.

A track across north Florida, or Florida & south Georgia, looks like an increasingly pretty good bet.