danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Jun 25 2012 12:35 AM
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge

I hate to throw a snag in the forecast. But the new 00Z GFDL and BAM Suite take the storm back west toward MS/ LA.

Granted the SHIP and DSHIP are at Tropical Depression wind speeds. It would still take Debby 120 hours or 5 days to reach those forecast points.

I'm still looking at the new guidance. Will update as necessary.

Links are time sensitive and display the latest Guidance
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CHGHUR&max=61

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CHGQLM&max=61

Looking at the 18Z GFDL and HWRF they are now considered old.

GFDL makes an initial landfall at the Mouth of the Mississippi River and then bounces over to a second landfall near Gulfport,MS at 992mb.

HWRF makes a single landfall near Orange Beach,AL or the eastern side of Mobile Bay.

GFDL/GHM and HWRF-use nested area



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