| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 25 2012 03:28 AM |
|
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge
|
Quote:
Is anyone else noticing the big convective blowup north of the YP? It seems to be heading in Debby's direction? That reminds me that originally the GFS said this would be a double barrel system
The blowup near the Yucatan is just her tail. However, it is possible that her tail does eventually become the focal point of some brand new TC development (maybe a 10% - 20% chance, imho).
It is probably "exploding" at the moment in response to upper air dynamics and dry air causing the line to gust out, producing a gust front that appears to be racing south and southeast, firing convection as it goes. This is not indicative of new development. In fact, that is unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.