cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Jun 28 2012 06:39 PM
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge

Quote:

Debby is looking better today on satellite imagery than she has for a long time. Then again, does she have a real center of circulation or is that just a ball of convection like always Debby is not one to follow the plan.




Debby's convection, as has always been the case, is largely weighted to one side (in the case of the past few days, on her northern half). Her convective "balls" have rarely been indicative of where her actual center of circulation is, but rather, just where the preponderance of most inclement weather is occurring at any given time.

As can be seen in the ASCAT pass below from earlier today, Debby has just about shed all of her frontal mesh, and has redeveloped a pretty well defined surface circulation.



The above image shows surface winds easily in the 35-40 knot range, especially considering that ASCAT has a well documented low bias.

Given that there is still arguably some meaningful frontal interaction, however lessened it has become this morning, it may be prudent for NHC to hold back on restarting advisories just yet, but it is probably getting to be a close call.



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