berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Jun 28 2012 11:43 PM
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge

Extra-tropical storm Debby is not tropical; looking at enhanced water vapor imagery reveals her energy source is baroclinic (derive energy from contrast in temperatures) and there is strong subsidence in the wake of the longwave trough which is now supporting the system. For a PTC to regain tropical cyclone status; the upper support has to weaken and/or leave behind the low level circulation and thunderstorms have to once again develop near the center and that simply is not the case. This evening as the PTC accelerates to the ENE the system once again has become elongated as subsidence is impinging it from the north. It is not uncommon for depressions to strengthen via temperature contrast as post-tropical cyclones which is the case here. Looking at shear analysis; for the near future; this cyclone has zero chance of obtaining tropical cyclone characteristics.


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