The next 24-48 hours will go a long ways in determining Ernesto's ultimate destination.

If he can't get better organized at this forward speed, he could open up and stay weak and run into Central America. A more organized, stronger storm would likely turn more NW into the Yucatan or even possibly running thru the channel and into the GOM.

Right now Ernesto is trucking west at a fairly good clip, and is in an unfavorable area for strengtheing. A lot of factors are working against Ernesto, but if it makes it past the Eastern Carribean as a TS then there could be bigger problems down the line.