MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 03 2012 03:31 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge
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With Ernesto now in the Eastern Caribbean, the next several days are key. The weakness in the ridge seems to be picked up by multiple models (including GFS/EUro) and pulls it further north, with the Yucatan having the best odds for landfall.
Movement westward into central America is still very possible, but less likely today than yesterday, but most of the odds have shifted north toward the Yucatan.
In short, the very long range odds favor a Yucatan hit at this time, and likely south of Texas into Mexico.