Ernesto has slowed his forward speed just slightly since yesterday. Whether it's in response to the ridge to the north or the area of dry air ahead of Ernesto it's really hard to tell right now.
I still see a tight clustering of the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models. With an extrapolated landfall in the Pensacola,FL to Gulfport,MS area.

All of the other models and the Official NHC Forecast take Ernesto toward the Cozumel/ Cancun,MX area. With one exception, the AEMN still goes west toward southern Texas and then doglegs toward the Lake Charles,LA/ Houston,TX area.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

TropicalAtlantic.com Ernesto Model page