Those models aren't completely without merit (The GFDL,HWRF) If the Upper Level low in the Gulf is enough to nudge the track a bit north of the forecast then that scenario seems a lot more likely than the Globals. In short, today is a pretty big day. Ernesto is still moving relatively quickly westward, veering south of the forecast track brings more credibility to the globals, veering north more to the others. Some of the latest mimic (microwave) data suggests in may be nudging a bit northwest of the recon fix, at least now.
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge