I don't have a single reason in not following the majority of the models into Mexico and Central America.
I'm just very curious why the Main 2 Hurricane Suites are wanting to go North. The only reason I can see at this time is the possibility that they are reading the ULL over the Western GOM. If you look at the water vapor loops the ULL is pulling moisture in from over the Yucatan/ bay of Campeche area. I'm not an expert at any means with tropical systems. Just highly curious as to why the GFDL and HWRF Suites have been moving North and as of the latest Advisory the NHC has excluded those two suites. They normally use those two suites as the basis for their Forecasts.

The GFDL and HWRF both moving in the same direction is a bit of a Red Flag to me. Something is amiss here. Miami, we have a problem.

Always follow NHC and NWS watches, warnings and Advisories for protection of property and personal safety.

Jim, Corpus Christi to Morgan City is a good bet right now.
I agree with your Storms follow drought theory.