" Post subject: Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:51 am 5 Category 5

Still racing along at 22 MPH and outpacing the convection this morning. Typical for a weak storm in the Caribbean and I remember one of the early GFS runs had Ernesto depicted as an open wave at this longitude. South of Jamaica is where the slow down usually occurs so the next 24 hours should eliminate a lot of possible solutions.

Thought I was seeing a stair step pattern beginning to appear in the tracking data earlier. That sometimes is a sign that a storm is putting on the brakes. The coordinates jumping north a little when a temporary LLC forms under each new convective burst then he tracks west again as the LLC outruns the convection. Last edited by Nimbus on Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:55 am, edited 1 time in total. "

I agree with this post and this one:

"
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H :larrow: Doesn't seem like slowing movement to me. Even if it does, its too late now...only wild center re-locations to the north will allow it a chance to do something. Looks ugly right now and that new burst means nothing."

But Only the 'Wild Center re Locations to the North' part....

Ernesto just jumped to 16N or at least closer than 15....
IMHO....

carmen 1974 claudette 2008 ...the closest analogs....

And the UKMET has Ernesto going up Sabine River.
....SWAG....

Giving a Nod to those looking at 2 Mexican Landings...

will pull Ernesto down to Galveston....

We'll know in the next 36 hours...