PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

VALID 12Z THU AUG 09 2012 - 12Z SUN AUG 12 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD...

LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ERNESTO IS STRUGGLING TO
ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES AT A RAPID CLIP TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT SLOWS
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2-3 DAYS. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS ERNESTO WAVERING NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE
STRENGTH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE
PRESSURE MAPS BEYOND THEN MAINTAIN THAT IDEA UNTIL ITS FINAL
LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAD NARROWED SINCE FRIDAY...SHOWING A LANDFALL
ACROSS MEXICO NORTH OF VERA CRUZ STATE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
IS NEAR AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE...STEER ERNESTO
FARTHER NORTH. UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE
IF ERNESTO BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MID LEVEL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS/TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE U.S.
THEREFORE... PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH TEXAS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.