While each storm is different Ernesto was no different than most of the other storms that traversed the Carribean close to South America. Despite having "the look" Ernesto could never overcome geography, dry air, and the overall climate data that has been noted for decades.

The GFS handled the storm very well for days, but it may have just undersestimated the boiling waters of the Western Carribean. Ernesto is rallying at the last minute and may strike afairly hard blow to Belize.

It would have been nice if Ernesto would have stayed weak all the way into the Yucatan and weak into N Mexico and somehow made its way into the Southern Plains of the US; but its not in the cards now.