danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 07 2012 12:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Lounge

I was watching the center fixes also. Yes, they are in a row at nearly a due NW or 315 degree heading.

NHC uses 6 hour averages on their headings so it would take a while to average out the NW run. ( Remember Charley 2004. Average said Charley was heading NNW after he made the right hand turn toward landfall.)

Computers don't have Eyes and that 3rd dimension is what gives us an edge over a computer.

I'm not sure what the NW run will do to the models as they aren't out yet. But it Should have some effect on them. I don't think it will be a large... Central GOM effect. But something along the lines of missing Belize and striking the Cozumel to Cancun area. Which in turn could line up portions of the South Texas Coast for a second landfall.

That's my two cents. And I didn't stay at Holiday Inn Express last night, or book Earl Lee.



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