everything above has no real basis execpt for a nogaps model run a few days ago. I feel that nogaps has a good handle vs the other models on the shallow flow characteristics of the large scale pattern as a whole. im not focusing on the center of the llc or wave, but as the whole synoptic pattern dealing with ernesto the upper low it self that has been moving slowly south for severla day and in the wake of ernest and upper level input from the outflow of ernesto, that the upper low would try and take on some mid to low level extra tropical characteristics. the wave entering the picture that is florence will be ventelated and sheared by this eveolving hybrid upper low. the result wouldent so much be the LLC forming again but more a meso scale features forming, fluxuating with the diernal pattern.

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