10/02Z - I haven't looked at the 10/00Z run but I have looked at both the 12Z and 18Z runs..currently there's a break between the Cape Verde/African Upper Ridge and the Bermuda Ridge and for a while the Cape Verde ridge follow along the system but the anomalously deep cutoff low over the Great Lakes region is impressive to say the least with an extending long wave trough all the way to the Gulf Coast. The break appears to be in the vicinity of 56W longtitude and the westerlies take quite the dip. Florence is DOA with the long wave trough in place over the Eastern US and if it were to survive it would have a date with recurvature nevertheless. Any tropical activity has to stay right along 10N latitude to have any shot at getting across the AO. The models have been consistent for days bringing Ernesto back from the dead in the Pacific.

(This post was edited in the main forum, but posted in its entirety in the "lounge"...we affectionately call it the 5 day rule)