For beyond the Caribbean talk, The forecast track is going to be heavily influence by Hispaniola, if it moves over Dominica/Haiti it will tear the system up leaving rain if it were to make it close to Florida. If it manages to stay south of the island it has a chance to remain more together and a chance to affect Florida mid next week.

Too much up in the air to say anything more than watch it, the latest global gfs does take it over parts of Haiti and Cuba, but also though the spine of Florida. Expect that to change several times.

This storm is in a similar position to Irene from last year, so in reality, if it survives the northern Caribbean islands, those in the US from Florida on up will want to keep track of it. Puerto Rico and the US VI are in the Tropical Storm watch area.