The latest GFS run (18z - link)takes it over the keys late Monday, over southwestern Florida and out into the Gulf near Tampa Bay Tuesday night, and landfall in the big Bend near Apalachee Bay on Wednesday night (same area where the worst flooding from Debby occurred)

A reminder this will probably change over time, but the trends are important to note, GFS and Euro models have historically been the better performing ones over the last few years.

Along with the above the 18Z Nogaps (which has done horrible the last few years), is keeping it east of Florida.

Starting with the next model run (0z) some recon data will start to be inputted.