danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 22 2012 07:46 AM
Re: Invest 94L Forecast Lounge

You are correct. Weaker systems usually travel a bit more to the west before making a curve to the north. Somewhat akin to a tall ship with sails set low on the mast.
Stronger systems use full sails and tend to curve to the north sooner, rather than later.

Examples...
1.Storm remains weak and moves south of Cuba before turning toward the North.
2.Storm intensifies and begins to move toward the WNW or NW and crosses the Greater Antilles, which usually weaken the systems due to their topography, mountains. This weakened system has to regain it's strength and therefore moves a bit more to the west before curving North.

3.System becomes stronger, crosses the Greater Antilles early and curves northward before the Bahamas

These are just 3 of the possibilities with any system in the area of the Lower to Mid Lesser Antilles and none of these scenarios are set in stone.

See MikeC's post above for actual model forecasts.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center