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For the general user, this may of interest - from NCEP: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012 VALID 12Z SUN AUG 26 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 29 2012 ...HURCN ISAAC MAY IMPACT FL DURING THE D5-D7 TIME PERIOD... THE MAJOR THREAT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAME WILL BE WITH HURCN ISAAC WHICH IS CURRENTLY CHURNING THE WATERS NEARBY THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LATEST NHC TRACK SUGGESTS THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF CUBA BY 25/1200Z WITH A GENERAL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CARRYING IT NEAR THE FL KEYS BY 27/1200Z. FCST MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT ISAAC TOWARD THE SERN U.S. BY MID-NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THE CURRENT 06Z/00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A VARIETY OF SOLNS PRESENTED THEREBY COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR INTERESTED PARTIES ACRS THE SERN U.S. THE CURRENT TRACK INDICATED BY THE NHC GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN THRU D5 WITH HPC CONTINUING ITS GENERALLY MOTION TOWARD THE NNW INTO CNTRL GA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OF COURSE...PLEASE VISIT THE LATEST TRACK OF HURCN ISAAC ON THE NHC WEBSITE AT www.NHC.NOAA.GOV. ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE IN NATURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MEAN NEG ANOMALY SHOULD BE FEATURED JUST TO THE WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH THIS AXIS OF HGT FALLS GRADUALLY SPREADING SERD TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND/COASTAL PAC NW BY 27/1200Z. CONSIDERING TELECONNECTIONS UTILIZING THIS NEG ANOMALY CENTER...A BROAD AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS SUGGESTED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH A GENERAL MAX ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. IN THIS OMEGA BLOCK SIGNATURE...AN ELONGATED TROF AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS FEATURE IN PARTICULAR WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN HOW MUCH LATITUDE ISAAC WILL GAIN THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC/ENS GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE...THE IDEA OF THIS HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS CONVEYED ACRS THE BOARD. HOWEVER...THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NRN STREAM TROF MOVING THRU THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND ERN U.S. DOES VARY WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS OF THE EVENTUAL PATH OF ISAAC. CURRENTLY...THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN MAINTAIN A STRONG ENOUGH 500-MB RIDGE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF 30N. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOLN THE PAST 4 RUNS...INSIST ON ISAAC BEING DRAWN NWRD. OVERALL...HPC FAVORED A SOLN COMPRISING THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN WITH SOME COMPLIMENTS FROM THE 00Z UKMET EARLY ON GIVEN ITS FAVORABLE HANDLING OF THE NRN STREAM. |