90L is going to be a rather slow developer if it does at all. I would say 50/50 right now. I feel confident that this gets maybe as strong as moderate TS at its highest. Cimss analysis wind shear shows 20-40 knot wind shear over the eastern Gulf/FL to east of the system, however it is dropping into an area of low shear 10 knots or less. So shear will not be as big of an issue I think as the dry air around the system will be. However as front/trough drop into the north Gulf this weekend shear will increase moving into the weekend when it will get picked up and shoved E and NE across FL.