Fri Oct 12 2012 10:09 PM
Re: TS Rafael Forecast Lounge

A combination of radar, satellite, and recon flights have determined that vigorous Invest 98L has closed off a circulation at the surface, and has thus been upgraded to Tropical Storm Rafael.

Rafael is expected to bring Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles very heavy rains with pockets of tropical storm force winds before gradually exiting the area early next week. From there, models strongly suggest that Bermuda may be in its sights by mid-week, and perhaps even Newfoundland by next weekend.

It is worth noting that while there have been a few model runs showing Rafael becoming a formidable hurricane, its core is quite large, as is its overall circulation, and intensification into a hurricane, while very possible, may be slow to occur, should it occur.

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