I have learned from previous storms: never discount the GFDL. As the storm gets closer, the other models are getting closer to what the GFDL has been forecasting for the two days - a more southern hit, somewhere in Deleware (or a little south) or southern NJ. GFS is still a northern outlier, while the ECMWF and other major models are getting much closer to the current GFDL.

The GFDL itself has shifted a bit north from a pair of runs two days ago, but except for those two runs which were southern outliers (near the mouth of the Chesapeake), it is surprisingly close to the same track for the past two days.

And now for the bad part: The GFDL track has it crossing the Chesapeake Bay (east to west, thankfully! not south to north!) about 6 miles north of me. Yuck.