|
|
|||||||
If Mike and Ed will allow me some latitude here. I'm going to continue to post Forecast Discussions due to the Critical nature of the Hurricane Sandy/ FrankenStorm event. I'm not sure how many readers that we may have in the Region. But I feel the information is there to be relayed on to the general public that might not receive it otherwise. FXUS01 KWBC 272101 PMDSPD SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 VALID 00Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 00Z TUE OCT 30 2012 ...A DANGEROUS STORM IN HURRICANE SANDY LURKS OFF THE EAST COAST... ...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS UP THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. ...STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS... OF COURSE THE MAJOR STORY THROUGH MONDAY IS HURRICANE SANDY WHICH HAD BEEN UPGRADED TO SUCH A STATUS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE OUTER BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO STRADDLE THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WHERE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EXPECTS THIS SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY 1 RATING THROUGH MONDAY WHILE GENERALLY TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTH. BY MONDAY EVENING...HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO TAKE A HARD TURN TO THE LEFT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SUCH A TRAJECTORY WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE COASTLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. AS EXPECTED WITH ANY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT STORM SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SYSTEM. BUT WHAT MAKES SANDY DIFFERENT IS THE FACT IT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY INVIGORATE THE CYCLONE AND FURTHER EXPAND ITS VAST WIND FIELD. IN ADDITION...LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE FULL MOON STAGE OF THE LUNAR CYCLE WHICH FAVORS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM. OVERALL...THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST AT www.NHC.NOAA.GOV. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD BEEN MARCHING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES HAS QUICKLY COME TO A HALT. THE BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SANDY BOUNDED BY AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WINDS BEGIN RESPONDING TO HURRICANE SANDY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION. BY MONDAY...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SPILL DOWN TO EXPERIENCE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. UP TO A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECASTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BY THE HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK. |