danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 28 2012 01:29 AM
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
111 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

VALID OCT 28/0000 UTC THRU OCT 31/1200 UTC

HURRICANE SANDY
===============
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT

THE 12Z ECMWF & 00Z GFS MODELS ARE CLOSEST TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL WITH SANDY ARE EXTREME FROM THE
GET-GO, RUNNING A RARELY-SEEN SIX SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE
30TH PARALLEL AT THE INITIAL TIME STEP, STRONGLY SUGGESTING A
RECORD EVENT IS UNDERWAY. A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO WILL LEAD TO A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE ALOFT, WHERE THE 00Z GFS HAS MUCH LOWER 500
HPA HEIGHTS (ON THE ORDER OF 5220 METERS) THAN THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE (THOUGH ITS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES NEAR ITS CENTER IN
MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA REMAIN WITHIN FOUR SIGMAS OF NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER SO IT CANNOT BE DISMISSED), INCLUDING THE NAM WHICH
CAN BIAS IN THE DEEP DIRECTION. CONSULT LATEST NHC
ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING SANDY.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

ROTH
$$



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