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HWRF shreds Chantal over the Hispaniola. Remains are weak and move toward a SC NC, south of the Outer Banks area. Max wind speed for this run of the HWRF is 69 knots. GFDL veers north before being shredded over Hispaniola and moves into the Western Atlantic just shy of the Turks and Caicos. Movement more toward the Outer Banks, NC than HWRF. But not by much. Max forecast wind speed for this run is 96 knots. The GFS and it's Ensembles right now are in an area from Charleston, SC to the western tip of Cuba. That's the Cone of Certainty area for the most part. I'm somewhat concerned with the "Left Turn Chantal" scenario seen in nearly all of the GFS models and in a few of the NHC's model. I saw a flare and hover, stall over the Bahamas area on yesterday's run. Similar to a hummingbird or helicopter moving up to a location and then abruptly coming to a hover. Easiest way to explain it. I'm still waiting on the next few days runs to come up with a better solution. |