doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Jul 29 2013 07:42 AM
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge

A quick run through the floater loops suggests to me that it is still a trough. The outflow looks less impressive this morning. The influence of the ULL to its NW is pronounced on the west side preventing any evacuation along its western edge. It has completely separated from the tropical convergence zone and will have to generate its energy internally for the most part. In that regard pressures are relatively high in the immediate surroundings 1016-1018, and it will have to sustain convective development in order to do so. Right now I think most of the convection is of diffluent origin, i.e. interaction with the ULL, particularly to the west of the base of the trough, which may spell the end of the system if it cannot develop a consistent convective core near the base of the trough. I think the NHC has correctly called this a toss up and I have no sense that further development in the sense of cyclone regeneration will occur.


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