Above: Recent IR4 Image of Disturbance In the NW Caribbean

A disturbance mostly in the mid-levels has slowly been developing in the western Caribbean, and is now given a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next five days, per NHC.

The system presently has limited organized convection, but intermittently good cyclonic flow.

Movement is to the northwest at around 10 MPH. The disturbance is expected to cross the Yucatan, and enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later in the week, where it should have a better chance of getting a name.

This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on this feature's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Title edited to reflect upgrade to Tropical Storm.