Above: Most Recent Vis/IR Image of Invest 95L

A new disturbance is slowly developing in the northwestern Caribbean as of 9/16. This feature does not yet have an Invest tag, but could get one later today or tomorrow, at which time this post will be edited to reflect the Invest number.

Residual moisture and energy left in the wake of Hurricane Ingrid is interacting with a tropical wave. As of midday Thursday, 9/16, a vorticity max in the mid levels with an apparent reflection at the surface is located around 17.5N 88W, and moving generally in a wnw to nw direction.

Nearly all the major models at least hint at yet another tropical cyclone trying to form in or around the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this week, and so far it looks as if this NW Caribbean disturbance has the best shot, although some runs suggest that perhaps Ingrid's remains will loop back around into the Bay of Campeche, and either reform and/or merge with the feature. Additionally, there has been a persistent area of thunderstorms, associated with Ingrid's eastern flank, that remains over open water, just off the coast of Tampico, Mx.

This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on this feature's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Edited to change title to reflect addition of Invest tag. Edited to swap out Western Atlantic IR with Invest 95L Floater. - Ciel