Let me try to clarify the UK Met Data Plot. It is not in error on the SFWMD display. The UK Met output does not track Invests - it picks up the track at the point that a tropical cyclone forms in their model. In this case their model output does not anticipate tropical cyclone formation until the system gets much farther to the north. Hope this helps.

Guideline from their last model run:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 25.5N 95.7W

ED