Up to 50% this morning, the global models are now suggesting:

GFS, never gets too organized, but a lot of energy and rain spins up and gets tossed over Florida on Monday.

Euro: shifts it west and keeps it disorganized, with some rain/energy splitting off to the east, never really develops it. It's important to note the euro isn't latching on to the same area as the other models either. Moves it toward Texas/Mexico.

ParaGFS: Gets a bit organized, but not terribly so, landfall just east of Panama City Tuesday Evening but disorganized, again spitting rainfall east of the system.

CMC: Much slower than the others, develops it near west Cuba on Monday, then landfall near Destin on Thursday. Keeps it fairly organized, but not very strong. NavGem is similar

For those new, the GFS/Eurio tend to be the better models, but they are not perfect. The CMC/NavGem aren't as good for the tropics, but are decent at the overall pattern This general consensus is a bit of a disorganized system, with a lot of rainfall for Florida out of this in the early to mid part of the week next week. 50/50 is a good guess if it develops right now. If the euro is correct, parts of Texas may also get a lot of rain, but the Euro seems to be grabbing onto a different area -- a monsoonal trough--- than the other models that are latching onto a weak wave around 72W in the western Caribbean..

Typical for June, a "messy" system is likely.