MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Jun 17 2017 06:15 AM
Re: Models Mid-June W. ATL Storm

Morning model runs for W. Carib:

0z Euro moves it to the west starting Monday as a weak mess over the main part of Mexico on Thursday.

6Z GFS, has it developing in the eastern gulf, late Monday, then a messy tropical storm landfall near Destin on Wednesday. Another area of energy spits off west toward Texas by the end of the week.
6Z GFS Parallel ramps things up fast in the east Gulf on Monday, and then a hurricane landfall in Panama City on Tuesday afternoon. Another area of energy spits off west toward Texas by the end of the week. (just rain)

CMC has a strong TS or Hurricane over Destin Wednesday morning.

Navgem has a mess moving over LA on Thursday with all the rain to the east.

Euro is still most likely (but not by much) the fact it's Saturday morning and we still have a split is a bit concerning, but keep watch on it. Monday is likely the day we'll know, which may not allow much preparation time time if the GFS is correct. GFS is seeing the split with some energy going to Texas later int he week, but the main part developing quickly in the eastern Gulf. It's hard to say much more since nothing has developed yet.

It likely will become an invest later today. Of the two, the Euro is more likely, but still worth watching either way.



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