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Some of the midday (12z) runs show landfall in a few places now. (After not at all this morning) 12z GFS is still out to sea, hooks around Bermuda 12z Euro takes it through the Northern Lesser Antilles on Saturday evening. Weakens it greatly and winds up over the Bahamas on GFS Parallel split it northeast of the Caribbean and then shoots along to the north and the other area brings some rain to Central Florida on July 14th. (not strong at all) CMC has a hurricane into Cape Canaveral late on July 12th. This is a great example of how crazy the long range models are, and all that they are good for is indicating if something is worth watching. The ridging is what to watch in the longer range, rather than the position of the storm. |