Fri Jul 07 2017 03:15 AM
Re: General 2017 Model Watching

Model runs tonight (TD#4 dissipates in all of them)

The new wave currently has multiple model support for strong development.

0z Euro starts to develop the wave currently over Africa in the Central Atlantic around July 12th, then it becomes a strong hurricane and goes through the Lesser Antilles July 16th (moving slowly as it crosses!) and ends the run July 17 as a major hurricane just east of the Virgin Islands.

0Z GFS starts to develop it moving west in the Central Atlantic on July 12th, has a major hurricane in the Lesser Antilles on July 15th, (slightly further south than the Euro) Gets disrupted by Hispaniola, and goes between Jamaica and Hispaniola on July 19th, then clips western Cuba and moves into the Gulf (weaker)

GFS Para does not develop it.

CMC develops it but loses it.

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