Sat Jul 08 2017 09:14 AM
Re: General 2017 Model Watching

Model runs for east wave:

GFS Para doesn't really develop it and smashes it into South America.

0z Euro isn't developing it either.

GFS has it as a hurricane over the leewards friday night into Saturday, between Jamaica and Haiti on Tuesday July 18th, over Cuba on the 19th, moves through the western Bahamas on the 20th, gains strength and Landfalls near Wilmington NC on July 21st as a major hurricane, cuts inland through north Carolina, over DC on Sat the 22nd, and moves quickly though New England. (the prior 0z run had the system slowly moving up the spine of Florida starting July 20th as a major) -- Reminder that far out, especially with a system that hasn't developed yet, it doesn't mean much other than something may be worth watching that week, more interested in how it trends over time and the upper air steering pattern.

In short GFS is being hyperactive (again), something to watch but nothing guaranteed, similar to what TD#4 was.

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