18Z Gfs is back further west with a much closer approach to the Bahamas on August 13th, but not over, and then makes landfall as a major hurricane on the NC outer Banks near Morehead City on August 15, heads over Hampton Roads/Norfolk and back out into the Atlantic then races over eastern Long Island and over Boston on august 16th. Slightly better init than the earlier run. GFS does not really develop invest 90L (the other one being tracked) in the bay of Campeche at all.

Esemble spread is biased toward the east.

Still a lot of uncertainty there, but 99L will likely be a long lived tropical system that can be watched over the next week or two. The leewards still need to watch it also, the GFS seems to be overdoing development right now.