Thu Aug 10 2017 04:16 PM
Re: Invest 99L Lounge

When the sun set on 99L last night, Wednesday Aug 9, a tight low level circulation was evident, and for several hours deep convection fired in association with it. But as the night (and shear) wore on, most convection became displaced from the incipient low level center, and by the time an ASCAT pass made it over, the fledgling disturbance had degenerated back into a sharp wave.

Model support has fallen apart on 99L within the past day, but it has been and remains a tenacious wave. Just this morning it already appears to be trying to consolidate a low level circulation again, with a little convection attempting to hold.

As models have mostly shut off the entire basin for the next ten days to two weeks, which given the higher sea level pressures is somewhat understandable but may very well be overdone, this could be producing a bias to miss the smaller and less pronounced features that only need 'a break' to develop. 99L would certainly qualify.

Should 99L not develop, or develop late, it might pose more of a threat to the US later on, as it would be less likely to recurve sooner.

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