Thu Aug 10 2017 01:16 PM
Re: Subtropical Trof east of Florida

Trof still has a 10% chance per NHC of becoming a numbered tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Very low, but not zero. Greatest risk is of flooding tropical rains, either way.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Active weather pattern this morning as a trough of low pressure
edges westward over the South Florida peninsula. The morning MFL
sounding indicated an impressive 2.05" of PWAT, with even higher
values offshore, as seen on satellite derived PWAT. CAPE is long
and skinny, which is indicative of a tropical atmosphere. The high
moisture content may lead to an additional flooding concern, as
heavy rain already led to areas of ponding of water and minor
east coast metro street flooding earlier today. As this system
continues its journey westward over the peninsula this afternoon,
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain remain likely,
especially over the interior and Gulf coast.

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