cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 16 2017 10:56 AM
Re: HUR. GERT Lounge

Gert is attempting to be declared the first Major Hur of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Even though the most recent advisory has Gert as a 90MPH hurricane, the cyclone appears to be in a powerful intensification phase, possibly rapid, and the 90MPH advisory estimate is almost certainly much too low.

Most recent satellite derived Current Intensity estimates as follows:
Quote:


CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08161158
SATCON: MSLP = 964 hPa MSW = 98 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 93.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 105 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 160 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 5.4 knots Source: MW

Recent Member Estimates

ADT: 965 hPa 85 knots Scene: CDO Date: AUG161115
CIMSS AMSU: 965 hPa 89 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 08161052
SSMIS: 962 hPa 96 knots Date: 08161158

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