Sun Aug 20 2017 04:12 PM
Re: HARVEY Lounge

WSI Calibrated ECMWF EPS now showing a greater than 90% chance that Harvey regenerates.

While the GFS runs should not yet be fully discounted, it is my personal opinion that the new GFS (since the July 19 upgrade) has not performed as admirably with Atlantic tropical cyclones as might be desired, and even in the face of a dramatic convective resurgence this morning, the latest runs (20/0z, 20/06z and now the 20/12z) still do mostly nothing with now x-Harvey... maybe a TD crossing Belize, or forming in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, at best. These runs now run entirely counter to the Euro, and defy the eyes.

Now awaiting the restarting of the TC-specific models HWRF & HMON. Run, runs, run.

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