Mon Aug 21 2017 10:31 AM
Re: 92L Lounge

Several days ago 92L had what looked like a well defined low level circulation embedded within deep convection. This lasted for roughly 12 hours or so, with a little on-and-off shortly thereafter. During this entire time the system was missed by Scatterometer passes, and not sampled by recon, so we may never know if 92L was another short-lived storm. But the point worth making here is that the system has had a little more going for it than a garden variety wave.

This morning, Aug 21, it's not looking as healthy as yesterday. Maybe it's being eclipsed by the prospect of Harvey regenerating and becoming a hurricane in the Gulf, or maybe it's other skyward news of the day, and models may have backed off some, once again, on 92L's prospects. For the time being, at least.

I don't mean to throw too much shade on 92. The wave actually does have at least two persistent areas of mild low to mid level rotation associated with it *cough* sloppy *cough*, and conditions may become favorable 'just enough' for one of these (possibly even two eventually, however unlikely that is), to spin up into something more. But an Andrew over Florida, or anything close to that - probably not. Though this time of year, never say never.

Below: Potential most favorable areas for one or more of 92L's vorts to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone within 5 days (40% per NHC at 8AM this morning). Possibly subtropical-ish as later in the week 92L may interact with a non-tropical system sweeping offshore.

Image below: Last night's (0z) ECMWF run valid for tonight 22/0z at 850 hPa. This looks like it might be a little off, especially with regards to Harvey's development, but close enough to what we should see, to evaluate a few things. 1) 92L and Harvey might interact a little.. Impacts, if any on 92L's potential, still too early to say, and 2) Blocking highs to 92L's north will likely continue to guide the disturbance/s west or west-northwest for at least a few more days.

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