Tue Aug 22 2017 09:47 AM
Re: 92L Lounge


My question is:

This system is not very far from Florida now. I've been watching the sats and it sure appears to be moving at a somewhat respectable speed. Or at least the front part of it. So where do these "next several days" manifest into the forecast? On a typical day I'd watch thunderstorms on the satellites move from where 92L seems to be now and watch them cross Florida within a day, sometimes in a single afternoon.

The NWS 8:00 pm statement has no reference to how fast this is moving. I must guess it is moving very slow. Right?

It looks like regardless of development (just lowered by NHC, again), 92L or whatever it becomes stays trapped a few days below high pressure to its north, but trapped while still offshore of the southeastern US. Good and bad, there. On the one hand, models suggest it stays offshore, on the other, you have a weak tropical trof drifting about over very warm waters.

That said, winds in the near term are hideously unfavorable for development (again), due to nearby upper level lows and outflow from "Harvey." So, any tropical cyclogensis that may yet occur would probably get delayed for another (another) couple of days, and by that time a long wave sweeping off the southeast coast would probably scoop up and maybe merge with whatever it is that still exists or has come of 92L.

There's a small chance that 92L slides further west than expected, but in doing so it would probably get blasted by high shear for even longer, and could also be disrupted by land interaction.

In summary, 92L tracks west = lower odds of development. Hangs offshore of the southeast = best chance may be Fri/Sat, and then up the east coast or out to sea.

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