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0Z GFS has it landfalling near matagorda Saturday morning and slowly moving inland and curving east, dropping extremely large amounts of rainfall, slowly, though northeastern Texas to Alabama 0Z CMC is stronger toward Brownsville. A lot depends on the short term motion now that its in the gulf, more west now would indicate a south Texas landfall, more northerly would put it closer to Houston. With the center appearing a bit more north than the models initialized at, the latter seems a bit more likely. Rainfall would be the big story, 24" of rain in some spots. |