As expected with the consolidation of Harvey and its movement to the NW the shear from its outflow has decreased over the low in the SE GOM adjacent to the SW Florida coast. Signs of this began to appear yesterday as a vigorous line of thunderstorms moved off the coast between Charlotte Harbor and the mouth of Tampa Bay and continued this morning as T Storms in the GOM increased and a consistent drizzly rain has begun to fall from the dense overcast, each of which demonstrates an increase in instability in the atmosphere surrounding the low.
I am intrigued with the NHC's inclusion of "subtropical development" and its increase in the % of actual development. The WV this morning demonstrates that a trough has pushed down the peninsula to just north of I-4 corridor, which in my opinion is why there is more energy surrounding the system and increasing TStorms over the GOM. A similar dynamic developed as Charley moved into this area as a Cat 1 but exploded into a cat 5 in a matter of hours. What was interesting then was as the low deepened over the GOM the NW quadrant of the storm dried up as it moved inland. The center of the storm passed within 25 miles East of my house but we had virtually no rain and diminished winds. All of this is to illustrate that subtropical development could result intensification quickly in this system and not effect intensity but would alter its structure.
Today is a very important day in the future of this system and its effect on mainland US...Will it continue to show organization? Will it continue to develop in place; or, will it begin to move NE along the periphery of the trough and into the ATL as predicted.? Either way a wet couple of days will occur in Southern Florida.