Irma overnight runs:

6Z GFS Hurricane later today, maintains it, keeps it north of the Caribbean, cat 3/4 landfall near outer banks on Sep 10th.

0Z Euro, over Northeastern Caribbean, PR, on Wednesday, cat 2 hurricane, just north of Hispaniola by Friday, riding northern coast of Cuba at the end of the run on the 10th.

CMC misses Caribbean to the north,

GEFS Ensembles the majority of runs recurve, (good news)

Euro ensembles closer over the Bahamas, though.

Splitting the difference keeps it a threat to the US in play, ne Caribbean also. Still a long ways out, but it will be important to watch over the next week or two. The wildcard is the potential Gulf system, which could affect the track of Irma.

Both Euro and the GFS trended west.

If it were to affect the US, timeframe would likely be Sep 10-12th.