(Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 04 2017 07:56 AM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge



0z GFS Run:
Updated as it comes in:
Starts off similar to the last run,Irma's obviously over warmer water now and we may wake up to a stronger hurricane.
Are you saying this is a genuine scenario?

By 36 hours, it's slightly south of the prior GFS Run, maybe 15 or 20 nm, but generally stays the same course until at least 42 hours out.

By Wednesday morning it's getting dangerously close to Barbuda, eyewall goes over Barbuda, then St. Maarten and Anguilla. By the evening it's over the British Virgin Islands (US gets some, but not as much as the northern British VI)

It stays north of Puerto Rico (to avoid the inner core), but still gets tropical storm force and maybe hurricane force along the northern side of PR.

Closer to HIspaniola this run, hits cat 5 late Thursday night as it nears the Turks and Caicos, and over them Friday morning.

Slips west of the Turks and Caicos Friday night, between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Saturday morning just offshore Cuba, then rides the northern coastline of Cuba. Sunday morning drifts north from Cuba into the Florida straits.

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

Back offshore by St. Augustine by the end of the night, still a major another landfall in central Georgia.

Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.

Posting it here for the record, 10th straight US landfall prediction for Irma.

If this happens,and we don't know that it will,it would be the biggest natual disater in U.S. history given that angle and the layout of Florida.

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